Monday, May 25, 2015

Two More Summer Outlooks


I am posting these two additional summer outlooks (JJA) just to illustrate how much variability there is among outlooks from different groups/organizations. The above outlook (from Weatherbell, sent along by Jack Diebolt) uses their own analog procedure (different than that developed by Art Douglas). The analog years are fairly numerous, with some years used twice - this outlook indicates above normal precipitation for  a very large portion of the country.

The outlook below, from NWS CPC, is a subjective outlook that draws upon numerous inputs - their result indicates the country nearly equally split between wetter than normal and equal chances for any outcome (a not very useful category, but probably appropriate for a product with poor verification).

Note that there is very significant difference between these two outlooks for Florida and much of the Rocky Mountain states. Meanwhile, the amazingly heavy rains continue over the Southern Plains as we begin the last week of May.


1 comment:

  1. Good contrast...and no agreement in those models for me.

    My wishful thinking long-range: a dry summer for the swamp cooler, and temperatures like May (or at least not like last June-July)!

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