Thursday, April 14, 2016

Cool And Windy Here - Colorado Watch Out!

Have taken a look at several forecasts this morning from the WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid from Atmo. Here in southern Arizona the most immediate impact of the strong and cold 500 mb low that is digging into the Southwest will be winds tomorrow and cooler temperatures through the next several days. Forecast above is of 10-m winds from the 06 UTC forecast run valid at 4:00 pm MST tomorrow. Forecast below is for 500 mb from the same run and valid at midnight tomorrow night. The 500 mb low is forecast to be over/near the White Mountains at that time, After that it meanders northward and even a bit westward as it lingers over the Four Corners Region during the weekend.

This sets Colorado up for a precipitation event that could be really huge. The WRF-GFS forecast above (from 00 UTC run last evening) is for total precipitation though 3:00 pm MST on Sunday the 17th - oranges to red indicate amounts from 2.5 to 10 inches. Below is the same forecast, but for snow accumulation - the Front Range and northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle really get dumped on - oranges to purples are forecasts of snow amounts from 2 to around 3 feet.

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