Monday, April 04, 2016

Model Forecasts For Rain At End Of Week Continue

 The members of the GEFS ensemble have been fairly consistent for a number of forecast cycles now in forecasting measurable precipitation at the airport for the late Thursday and Friday time period. The above graphic shows the QPF plumes from last night at 06 UTC. The members continue to come in at 100% POPs for this first event, BUT amounts at TUS range from 0.01 to 0.50 inches - quite a range in the "Q" part of the forecast by the ensemble members.

The current NWS forecast for the airport (below from the early am cycle) is going for 30% for this event. This is reasonable for an event that is still three to four days away. But also remember that the NWS  forecast for the TUS grid needs only 0.01" observed at the airport to "verify."

It is also interesting the GEFS operational member (blue) has now shifted toward the average of the 21 members - this after a stint as both a wet and then dry outlier. Hopefully this event will not fizzle away as it nears, like the March and February "events."

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