The GEFS forecasts from 06 UTC last night keep substantial troughing over the Western U.S., as shown above on the spaghetti plot (168-hour forecast valid at 06 UTC on Friday the 29th of April). There is surprising little spaghetti over North America in this forecast package.
Even though the forecast pattern for the West is an unsettled one, the GEFS continues very dry for the Southwest. The GEFS QPF plumes for Tucson (above) forecast a very slight chance of showers out at the end of the month. While the operational member (below) forecasts almost no precipitation over Arizona for the next week. So, a very mixed bag for the rest of April.
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