Thursday, April 28, 2016

Models Have Dried Up For Today

The slight chance of sprinkles and showers mentioned yesterday seems to have evaporated, according to last night's various model forecasts. The GEFS ensembles (above) have flat-lined through the 5th of May and neither the 06 UTC WRF-GFS or WRF-NAM forecast any precipitation in southeast Arizona today. Below is WRF-GFS forecast of precipitation through 5:00 am MST tomorrow morning.

However, winds continue in the forecasts - below shows WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon. Current NWS forecast for airport grid continues with a 10% chance for precipitation and thunderstorms, as well as wind gusts as high as 33 mph. The forecast also indicates a Red Flag Warning for the airport, but the warned area is well east of the metro region.

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