All the models continue to forecast a decent precipitation event Thursday and Thursday night - the GFS ensmbles from last night actually show 11 of 12 members having precipitation over southeast Arizona. The top image is of water vapor over the Pacific at 13 UTC this morning (Tuesday December 14th). There is now an extended plume of subtropical moisture from west-southwest of Hawaii all the way into the Northwest US. This will be pulled along with the 500 mb short wave that's forecast to move under the ridge and across the Southwest.--------------------------------------
The middle panel is total precipitation ending at 11 pm on Thursday night, from the Univ. of AZ Atmo WRF-GFS forecast from 06 UTC last night. That run actually forecasts 0.4" down here in Tucson and very nice precip amounts on the mountains in the southeast, especially the Catalinas, where the model forecasts up to around an inch of liquid equivalent. This would be a much better event than is currently forecast with 50% POPs and 1-2" of snow up there in the moutains. However, the Atmo WRF-GFS is often too wet and we'll have to watch to see what actually transpires.
The middle panel is total precipitation ending at 11 pm on Thursday night, from the Univ. of AZ Atmo WRF-GFS forecast from 06 UTC last night. That run actually forecasts 0.4" down here in Tucson and very nice precip amounts on the mountains in the southeast, especially the Catalinas, where the model forecasts up to around an inch of liquid equivalent. This would be a much better event than is currently forecast with 50% POPs and 1-2" of snow up there in the moutains. However, the Atmo WRF-GFS is often too wet and we'll have to watch to see what actually transpires.
---------------------------------------
The bottom panel is total precipitation forecast by this morning's run of the NWS NAM model for the period also ending at 11 pm Thursday night. The NAM amounts are also significant (at least for out here where it's been bone dry) and quite similar to the earlier WRF-GFS forecast shown right above. Finally, a bit of possible weather action.
No comments:
Post a Comment