Chance of Rain on Thursday?

The GFS analysis this morning (12z Monday 13 December 2010) for the Pacific at 700 mb (top graphic) indicates several lower latitude disturbances strung out across the ocean at 20 to 30 degrees north. There are several substantial areas of associated moisture (especially when viewed via satellite images). This morning's NAM forecast (middle panel) at 500 mb for 5 pm on Thursday afternoon indicates one of these short waves coming underneath the western US ridge and crossing the Southwest. This disturbance is forecast (by the NAM) to drag enough moisture along with it to produce a fairly widespread area of light precipitation across much of the Southwest (24-hour forecast precipitation valid at 5 pm Thursday afternoon shown in bottom panel).

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Not a very exciting event compared to the current eastern US storm and cold outbreak - but, with no rain here at the house since 0.14" on October 21st, it's certainly worth watching!
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Edited to correct day of week which was off by one!