A broad area of light rain and snow, at higher elevations, this morning stretches from southern California east-northeastward into southwestern Colorado. Models predict this zone of precipitation to shift eastward and southward across Arizona today and this evening as the 500 mb short wave over southern California moves eastward.-------------------------------------------------------------
I have chosen to show products just from the WRF-GFS run at Atmo at 06Z this morning because of the spatial detail of this model. The top image shows WRF predicted radar composite reflectivity at 1 pm this afternoon, with a band of showers approaching the Tucson area, but with much higher coverage to the north. The middle image shows WRF predicted total precipitation through 11 pm tonight. The model now predicts only 1/10th of an inch in central Tucson with better amounts on the Catalinas and Rincons.
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The WRF forecast then brings a second area of precipitation across much of Arizona tomorrow afternoon with a trailing, weaker disturbance from the Pacific. The bottom image shows WRF radar composite reflectivity at 2 pm tomorrow (Friday December 17th). the NWS NAM model predicts this also, but keeps the precipitation tomorrow in the higher elevations of the north half of the state - so we'll have to keep an eye out after the main short wave passes.
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