First - see post immediately below.------------------------------------------------
The three graphics above show this morning's (Saturday 11 December 2010) WV image (top), a surface plot from RAP just before 14z (middle) and the current NWS watches and warnings map (bottom - large red area is blizzard warning). The longer range ECMWF appears to have been right on with forecasts of the intense surface low developing and moving across the Chicago area tonight and tomorrow morning. The longer range forecasts of the GFS had this system too far south. The pressure gradient was accurately forecast, again well in advance, by the ECMWF - see below and note in middle panel that pressure in NW Iowa is around 1000 mb and is about 30 mb higher in north-central South Dakota! I see one reported gust on the surface plot near 60 kts in eastern Nebraska.
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Once again, an amazing long-term performance by the global models - especially by the ECMWF.
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There has been much interesting discussion on the SUNY map list the last several days about the arctic plunge attending this event, which will impact Florida and the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.
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