Sunday, December 19, 2010

A Look Ahead




First, a look at Half Dome in Yosemite, yesterday afternoon, in the top image.
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The amazing plume of water vapor continues this morning (Sunday December 19th) from west of Hawaii far into continental US. What in the world has been going on west of Hawaii for the last two weeks or so? Comment or thoughts anyone? This morning's water vapor image (middle) shows the plume, and the system and deep convection west of Hawaii.
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A look at the GFS shows that this model predicts the weather action for Christmas morning (156-hour forecast from last evening) will be along the west coast and in the east. The 156-hour GFS spagetti chart (bottom image) shows a pattern that appears remarkably similar amongst the ensemble members - except in the Northeast over to Europe.
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Right now the model forecasts seem to indicate that there will be two more chances for precipitation in southeast Arizona this year. The first wednesday afternoon and night and then again perhaps at around 10 days out. Quite an interesting end to the year. I note on the surface charts this morning that much of the precipitation in the Southwest and Sierra Nevadas is falling as rain, as per at Flagstaff and Grand Canyon. So rivers will running and California seems threatened with serious flooding from top to bottom.


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