The morning run of Atmo's WRF model forecasts windy conditions with downslope easterly winds through much of the night. This forecast means a strong warming of the low temperatures wrt this morning (officially 35F at TUS International Airport). The 6 am MST forecast (see above) of surface conditions across the metro area tomorrow morning indicates temperatures mostly in the 50s at sunrise. The point forecasts extracted from the model (see table below) also indicate metro low temperatures mostly in the 50s - about 10F warmer than the current NWS forecast of low 40s. However, I suspect that it will be another wild card night, with temperatures all over the place depending upon local wind conditions. After 2 nights in the upper 20s, I doubt that tomorrow's low here at the house will jump into the 50s.
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The following tidbits are extracted from this afternoon's NWS TUS Forecast Discussion - sorry, but I can't bite my tongue after reading this.
200 PM MST WED NOV 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PHASES
OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. ..... GOOD LUCK ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING. STRONG SPLIT DOWN THE COAST ....THERE IS SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONVERGENCE AFTER 12Z RUNS TODAY. THE MODELS ARE CATCHING ON TO AN INITIAL SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF ENERGY THAT WILL TEND TO LOOSEN THE SPLIT JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT RATHER THAN COMPLETELY DECOUPLING THE SYSTEM THERE IS A QUICK FOLLOW ON OF REINFORCING ENERGY THAT SHOULD DRAG BOTH IMPULSES........ LINGERING MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL ENERGY CARVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...
Check the glossary of NWS terminology if you want to interpret this meteorological gibberish.
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