Very Cold Morning In And Near Rillito Wash

Brrrrr. It's still dead calm here at house and quite cold out. The low here was 35F, versus 48F at the airport (TUS). Southeast winds were around 20 mph down at the airport. Perhaps most amazing was the temperature difference between house and airport at 6 am MST. The airport had jumped up to 61F, with an increase in the winds, while here at the house it was 36F - a very large difference of 25F!

The models continue to forecast the strong, 500 mb short wave to dig down the California coast through tomorrow afternoon. Once the vorticity maximum bottoms out, the trough is forecast to kick out to the northeast very rapidly. This brings a strong cold front and band of showers rapidly across southern Arizona during the night Friday, after a windy and dusty day. The early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS forecasts the front to move across the Tucson area during the early morning hours of Saturday. Above surface forecast is valid at 3 am MST on Saturday morning. Below is the model's concurrent forecast of composite radar reflectivity, indicating banded showers along and behind the front. Hopefully we'll get enough rain to clear out the dust and even perhaps enough to wet the ground in some spots. Model forecasts winter and snow up at the highest elevations of nearby ranges. Interesting weather continues, as at least one more short wave follows on the heels the Friday/Saturday event.