The 500 mb short wave currently moving across northeast-east Arizona brought a band of light showers across the Tucson area before sunrise. The early WRF at Atmo indicates event is mostly over, except for some early afternoon light showers. Here at the house we had 0.03" when I read the gauge at 7 am MST. Across the ALERT network only 18 sites measured light precipitation. TUS observations did indicate a thunderstorm in the vicinty as the band moved through.
The new NAM forecasts this morning indicate the next system will affect Arizona on Thanksgiving. The 500 mb forecast valid at 5 pm on Thanksgiving is shown above. Forecast indicates a short wave in Arizona and southern California that's similar to today's, wrt the strength of the associated vorticity. However, the 700 mb forecast valid at 5 am MST on Thanksgiving (below) indicates that this next system will pull moisture from low latitudes into Arizona ahead of it. Note the long fetch of the winds from the subtropics.
The NAM precipitation forecast for the 12-hours ending at 5 pm MST on Thanksgiving is shown below. The model forecasts a significant precipitation event well ahead of the short-wave trough at 500 mb, associated with the low-level plume of moisture. Certainly something to monitor as the Holiday approaches!
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