The new NAM forecasts this morning (Wednesday 23 Nov. 2011) shift the forecasted moisture plume eastward, so that only the southeast border area of Arizona is affected by precipitation. The current forecast indicates a substantial precipitation event for northern Mexico and much of New Mexico. Shown above is the 60-hour forecast of total precipitation through 5 pm MST on Friday. The early Atmo WRF-GFS has shifted the precipitation event completely east of Arizona.
The forecast moisture plume is not obvious as yet in the blended PW product shown below - from 1248 UTC this morning. There are some PW increases west of Baja, but a northward plume of high values has not yet developed. So, a somewhat strange situation continues, with d by dt of the model forecasts being substantial, even at these short ranges.
Finally, once Cat. 4 hurricane Kenneth has weakened as quickly as it intensified and is now a Cat. 1 hurricane moving westward - see IR image below.
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