The current event has proved surprisingly productive wrt rainfall (at least to me), given how far southwest of Tucson the 500 mb cutoff low is. The NAM 500 mb analysis at 12 UTC this morning is shown above, with the cutoff indicated southwest of San Diego. The 24-hour forecast valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning is shown below, with the cutoff indicated to move south-southeast and be over central Baja, before it swings on eastward across northern Mexico. Assume that the system's interactions with the moutains of northwestern Mexico are producing a substantial rainfall event and possibly flash flooding. The models have been quite good for this system, although a bit fast - quite impressive, since it has remained out over the east Pacific and had very complex internal structures.
Here at the house we had a brief shower last evening a bit after 8 pm MST that produced 0.02". When I checked the ALERT network at 6 am this morning only 3 of 93 sites had had light rainfall. However, showers moved across the entire Tucson area between 8 am and noon, producing 100% coverage of rain at the ALERT sites. Rainfall of over half an inch has been measured at 12 of the sites, with two gauges up in the high Catalinas measuring over an inch of rain - quite warm event. Rainfall this morning at the house measured an additional 0.60". Another area of showers is approaching from the southwest, so perhaps the total will go higher - definitely the best rainfall since September. Photos above and below show stratus fractus hanging on the south flanks of the Catalinas.
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