Eastern Pacific Continues Very Active

First, there is a band of middle clouds and higher PW values strung out across Arizona this morning from north of the northern end of GoC east-northeastward across the White Mountains. There is some CAPE with this feature especially out to the west-northwest of the Tucson area - so there may be isolated thunderstorms to the west and north again today.

Tropical Storm Odile has developed rapidly off the southwest coast of Mexico - Odile is currently centered near 15 N 105 W. There are three tropical disturbances lined up from Odile to one at about 10 N 127 W. The middle disturbance is expected to move northward, while Odile (current NHC forecast below) is forecast to move north-northwestward. Odile is also expected to rapidly become a hurricane.

The situation is again quite complicated. Odile may interact some with the Mexican land mass to its east. The NHC track forecast also takes the hurricane very near the mouth of the GoC. Storms that track southwest of southern Baja, west of 110 W generally produce surges of low-level moisture up the GoC well ahead of them, as did Norbert. Hurricanes near the southern GoC initially produce pressure and wind fields that favor northerly winds down the GoC, hindering the advance of low-level moisture northward. So, a continued complex tropical regime and, I think, very unusual situation over the eastern Pacific.