Transition Event Storms Bypass Southeast Arizona

Yesterday's heavy thunderstorms seriously avoided southeast Arizona. Lightning plot of CG flash locations above is for 24-hours ending at 5 am MST this morning (Sunday, September 28th). Some early morning storms were still active near Phoenix. The early morning WRF-NAM yesterday was actually a bit overdone for southeast Arizona, but had the trend for diminished activity this part of state correct.

Phoenix area once again had heavy rains and widespread wind damage yesterday. Photo below of some of the damage is by Alex Chihak, AP. Some rain amounts at NWS ASOS sites yesterday: Luke AFB 1.93"; PHX 1.66"; Flagstaff 1.19"; Prescott 1.36"; with the Grand Canyon and Winslow both having just a bit less than an inch.

Here in Tucson area during the day yesterday (5 am to 5 pm MST) NO stations within the Pima County ALERT network recorded rainfall. Last night (5 pm to 5 am MST this morning) only 4 sites in the Catalinas had very light amounts (< 0.20") from showers. So the high probabilities of rainfall that had been forecast for several days went for naught. A comment from yesterday follows:

tbambooranch has left a new comment on your post "Tucson Area High And Dry Yesterday": 

Why does it take so long for NOAA website and others to change the forecast when it is apparent even to a non-expert (from radar, etc.) that a storm is not heading towards Tucson? Today (Sept 27) it does not look like we are going to get anything, and Odile's remnants were obviously not going to hit us, either, yet into the evening we are still hearing big chances of rain. I know it's not a sure thing, but come on!

There's not much I can say except that many forecasters, weather-casters, and even some forecast offices tend to stick with the models and react slowly to observed trends. It certainly has been a tough month for weather folks here in the Tucson area.

Finally, Rachel (note, I misspelled name of this storm in earlier posts) has become a hurricane west-southwest of the southern end of Baja. This hurricane is forecast to become nearly stationary and then to drift southwestward.