It has ended up very suppressed today across much of Arizona. Above is 6:30 pm MST composite radar chart from Tucson. Strong easterly low-level winds resulted in downslope flow much of day. Further, steering flow did not increase as models were forecasting. So, a warm, mostly clear day here.
The new 00 UTC soundings from Phoenix and Tucson indicate almost no CAPE this evening, which fits with the current radar. Little hope for storms tonight unless low-level southerly winds increase and produce a moist, absolutely unstable layer above the old boundary layer - this sometimes happens and produces heavily raining MCSs during early morning hours. Earlier model runs were hinting at this and we'll just have to see what happens tonight.
Another complication in the overall picture. Norbert's remaining middle circulation is drawing very dry, Pacific air around the old storm - below is MIMIC PW from 22 UTC showing this. So, time may be limited for the current high PW levels over Arizona.
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