First - Norbert has weakened dramatically, as indicated by IR image above from 4:30 am this morning (Sunday, September 7th). The NHC was still calling Norbert a hurricane but I suspect that he may be a TS by now. The MIMIC PW loops show a distinct turn to the west during the night and Norbert has gotten west of many of the NHC track forecasts. Their current forecast is shown below.
Storms locally mostly fizzled quickly during late afternoon - strongest cells ran north from Catalinas toward Phoenix area and also a couple headed west. Plot of CGs through midnight last night indicates that storms avoided much of Pima County. Through 5 pm there were 60% of the ALERT stations with rain; however amounts were not heavy, with only six sites reporting half an inch or more.There were strong outflows up toward Phoenix, and Sky Harbor had another dust storm last evening. There were several reports of wind damage south of metro Phoenix toward the San Tan Mountains. There was essentially no rain at all over the ALERT network from 5 pm last evening to 5 am this morning.
This morning's sounding appears considerably more unstable than yesterdays, and there will be more sunshine - PW is very high. Main dilemma continues to be the strong east winds below 600 mb. Lenticular -like clouds sitting on the Catalinas this morning. Actual steering winds are unclear since the winds change directions right around 500 mb - shear profile is supportive of organized, mesoscale outflows again.
Only could find early WRF-GFS this morning. The forecast for composite radar echoes is shown above and accumulated rainfall through midnight is shown below. I think that WRF-GFS has tended to be too wet last couple of days locally, but am not sure.
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