Art Douglas sent along the SST analysis shown above. He says he has never seen such warm SSTs along Baja and off the coast of southern California. Apparently SSTs off Baja at the end of August were the warmest ever recorded.
The ITC appears to be kinked far to the north over this area of warm water, and there is widespread thunderstorm activity just south of the mouth of the GoC. The IR satellite image above is from 1630 UTC this morning, while plot of CG/CW flashes below is for 12-hours ending at 1600 UTC. Several storms with frequent flashes have been running rapidly northward this morning.
The models are forecasting development of a tropical low/possible storm that will move toward the south end of Baja. The situation will be complicated by mid-week since another tropical disturbance is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico. These two features may have middle-level troughs that will interact over Mexico. The models are fairly aggressive forecasting substantial moisture to return northward into the Southwest by Thursday and Friday, so September will be off to an interesting weather start. The early WRF-NAM forecast from Atmo (below is forecast of PW valid at 11 pm on the 3rd - on the 5.4 grid) indicates a surge of higher PW air already intruding into southwest Arizona by that time.
No comments:
Post a Comment