Tropical storm Dolly is off the east coast of Mexico this morning. The 1345 UTC IR satellite iamge above shows the cold cloud tops associated with Dolly - the storm center is near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. Dolly is expected to make landfall this evening well south of Brownsville, Texas.
The tropical disturbance that is expected to become Tropical Storm Norbert later today is currently southwest of Cabo Corrientes - the cloudiness associated with this disturbance is extensive and extends well up the GoC (IR image below is for 1400 UTC).
Detected CG & CW flashes associated with both tropical systems during the night are plotted in second graphic below (flashes for 12-hours ending at 1200 UTC this morning).
Norbert is expected to approach the southern end of Baja and to trigger a substantial surge of low-level moisture back into the Southwest. The timing of this moisture push seems slow in the global models, with the GFS being a bit quicker to forecast the moisture return than the ECMWF. The early run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecasts the moisture to be over much of Arizona by 11 pm MST the night of the September 4th (forecast above shown on the 5.4 grid). Note also that the moisture once associated with Dolly is forecast to be moving northwestward along the Rio Grande drainage. The model forecasts some accumulations of rainfall by that time (below), affecting mostly central Pima County.
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