Image above is water vapor at 13 UTC this morning. A moderately large MCS was moving northward into the lower end of the GoC. The tropical disturbance to the south of this MCS may become TS Rachael, if it gathers strength.
The PW has continued to decrease over southern Arizona, with morning values near or less than an inch (image below is blended PW analysis at 13 UTC from CIRA at Colorado State University). Note that values of around 2 inches and higher currently reside near and south of 25 N over the GoC.
Although the early WRF forecasts this morning continue to cool middle-levels of the atmosphere, the decreasing PW is working in the opposite direction. The forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 5 pm MST tomorrow afternoon is shown above from the WRF-NAM - this is the most active hour of radar echoes forecast by the model for coming three afternoons. Pretty grim, with only isolated storms on mountains and over highlands of central Pima County. Same forecast but of PW below indicates continued dry conditions over southeast Arizona, but with increased PW out over the lower Colorado River Basin. That moisture may get picked up by the strong Pacific trough that approaches the Southwest on Friday and Saturday.
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