Friday, March 13, 2015

Bit Of CAPE For Friday The Thirteenth

This morning temperatures at 500 mb are quite cool (-19C), as a weak vorticity maximum digs southward across western Arizona toward the GoC. The cool temperatures combine with abundant sunshine today to produce some small amounts of CAPE this afternoon, especially over the mountains. The 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM model at Atmo forecasts light showers over parts of southeast Arizona this afternoon (above forecast of composite radar echoes is valid at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon).

Main weather that will impact events this weekend will continue to be potential for strong easterly winds. The forecast below shows 10-m winds forecast for 9:00 am tomorrow morning - just when the Tucson Festival of Books will be starting up. Web cam view of east portion of University of Arizona Mall, at bottom, shows a beautiful and tranquil morning today, as tents are being put into place for tomorrow. The Mall is completely open to the east, so the winds will have maximum impact, since there will be no sheltering from tall buildings. Hope those running the Festival are keeping track of this potential problem and alerting all the vendors to batten down their displays.

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