Monday, March 16, 2015

More Winds Yesterday And Showers Later This Week

Yesterday turned out to be windier than expected - with many gusts reported into early afternoon in the 35 to 55+ mph range.  The above plot of winds with gusts in red is from MesoWest and was for 11:00 am MST yesterday.

The 500 mb closed low that is currently near the south end of Baja will move ascross northern Mexico tomorrow, as another weak S/W moves into the Southwest. The Baja system may produce some light showers mainly to the east. The trailing S/W however, is currently forecast by the WRF-NAM to bring more widespread shower activity to southeastern Arizona by Wednesday, the 18th. 

Forecast above is of composite radar echoes forecast for 11:00 pm on the 18th, while forecast below is of PW valid at the same time. The model's forecast for total precipitation through 1:00 pm MST on 18th is at bottom.

these forecasts are out at the end of 06 UTC forecast run and much can astray by the time they are valid - wait and watch.

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