Saturday, March 14, 2015

Book Festival Today And Tomorrow On The Ides Of March

Yesterday afternoon was characterized by high-based, light showers and sprinkles across eastern Pima County - view above is at about 5:00 pm MST. We had a couple of sprinkles here at house, along with a pleasant smell of rain in the air (Trace).

The WRF models run at Atmo continue to advertise strong and gusty east winds today and tomorrow. The morning sounding (taken at TWC on campus) plot above from SPC shows very strong east winds just above the surface layer. Just a touch of morning heating will re-establish the deep boundary layer and quickly mix the strong winds to the surface (vendor booths at the Book Festival are set to open at 9:30 am). There is a very strong, northerly jet stream (100+ mph) right overhead this morning.

The sounding is more stable than that of yesterday and WRF forecasts keep the showers off over higher elevations to the northeast and east this afternoon. The 7:00 am MST plot below, from MesoWest, shows surface winds with gusts in red - few sites are already gusting in the 20 to 30+ mph range. So, there may be flyers, brochures, and who knows what blowing in the wind at the Festival.

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