Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Some Light Showers Around This Morning

The rest of this week should be quite interesting, as the next 500 mb S/W and closed low move slowly across southern Arizona and northern Mexico. There are already light showers and sprinkles across portions of southeastern Arizona at 6:00 am MST this morning - above.

The WRF-NAM forecasts from the 06 UTC run get PW up to around an inch and develop some CAPE during next 60 hours or so. Shown below is the forecast sounding for TWC valid at 3:00 pm this afternoon - certainly a potential for some thunderstorms is forecast by the model, with best CAPE over the mountains and where/if some sunshine breaks through.

By Thursday the forecast for 500 mb (above valid at 7:00 pm MST on the the 19th) indicates the closed low just to our west, with fairly cool temperatures in middle-levels. So a very good potential for moderate to heavier showers. The WRF-NAM forecast of accumulated precipitation through 11:00 pm on Friday the 20th (below) indicates a general rain event for southeastern Arizona, with some nice amounts forecast for Cochise County and the White Mountains.

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