Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Quick Look At The Models This Morning

Edited to add:

Today is National walking Day and I've done my part, walking for an hour along the Rillito path this morning.

There were thunderstorms in northern mexico yesterday afternoon and one storm clipped the far southeast corner of Cochise County. Plot of detected CG flashes above shows CGs through midnight last night.

The midnight run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecasts breezy southwest winds today, especially for central Pima County - the forecast above is of 10-m winds valid at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon.

In the longer term (out at day 7) the ECMWF and GFS are quite similar over western North America but differ considerably in the details re the short wave over the Southwest. The forecasts above and below are both valid at 00 UTC on April 8th. The ECMWF forecasts a considerably deeper trough over southern California, with heights about 100 to 150 m lower than the GFS forecasts. Usually, in situations like this the ECMWF does better than the GFS - so we'll watch as this situation evolves.

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