Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Look Ahead For Next Seven Days

First - it is a mild and windy morning here along the Rillito, with winds from the east to southeast. Quite a contrast to yesterday morning, when the low temperature here was a chilly 37 F.

The long-range, GFS ensemble forecasts (00 UTC run last evening averages and spaghetti plots shown here, above valid at 84-hours and below at 168-hours) indicate that weak troughiness will continue to persist in the southern branch of the 500 mb flow which is affecting the Southwest. The GFS forecast (operational member, at bottom) for accumulated precipitation for this period keeps Arizona mostly dry, except for the White Mountains. So continued quiet for much of the Southwest.

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