Saturday, April 04, 2015

Update Re Two Earlier Posts

In a previous post I compared the 500 mb forecasts from ECMWF and GFS valid at 00 UTC on 8 April. Since that post, each model has trended toward a middle-ground between the earlier forecasts. The 500 mb forecasts valid at 00 UTC on 8 April from last evening are shown here. Both models are now forecasting similar situations, with a closed low centered near northern California. Compare for example the 564 dm contours and note how similar the model forecasts now are. 

Super typhoon Maysak was highlighted in earlier posts. The storm (shown above in an 06 UTC global IR image) continues to head toward the northern Philippines. However, as indicated in this morning's forecast from JTWC (below), the storm has weakened very markedly and is now classified as a tropical storm.

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