Thursday, April 09, 2015

Models Trending Toward More Moisture With Weekend System

After touting the CoC views yesterday, today has dawned quite dreary and cool. Above is view of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST and below is visible satellite image from 8:00 am showing the cirrus clouds covering southeast Arizona. Perhaps more sunshine later today as the clouds move rapidly toward the northeast.

Here at house the low temperatures for past 5 days (beginning Easter Sunday) have been quite cool with readings of 39F, 37F, 37F, 40F and 39F this morning.

The latest model runs have been forecasting the system this weekend to pick up enough subtropical moisture to produce more precipitation than had earlier forecasts. The graphic above is from the 12 UTC NAM run this morning and shows the model forecast of total rainfall through 5 pm MST on Sunday afternoon. Something like this would be the best rain event in months - so we'll hope for the best. The 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM model at Atmo does not cover the rainfall period, but the forecast of radar echoes at the end of the forecast period (below valid at 11 pm on Saturday the 11th) indicates a large echo field approaching from the south-southwest. The weekend certainly looks more interesting than it did a couple of days ago.

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