With colder mid-level air yesterday some thunderstorms developed over eastern Arizona during the afternoon. Visible satellite image above is for 6:30 pm yesterday and composite radar image below is for the same time. Graphic second below shows detected CG flashes through 6:00 pm - from Vaisala. Isolated buildups over higher elevations are again possible this afternoon.
A strong, 500 mb short wave now over the Northwest is forecast to move eastward and then dig almost due south, closing off near the Four Corners. Temperatures at 500 mb are very cold with this system - 500 mb forecast above is from 06Z WRF-NAM and is valid at 11:00 pm on the 16th. Currently precipitation is forecast to remain north with this system toward the Four Corners (below shows WRF-NAM forecast of precipitation on 5.4 km grid through 11:00 pm on the 16th). However, with such cold temperatures, some storms may be possible over higher elevations of southeast Arizona by the end of the week. April winds are a given with this system.
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