Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Two More Interesting Emails

Mike Leuthold sent the above summaries of Temp and Precip for 2015 through April 25th - of note is the extreme precipitation over much of Mexico. This is probably related to the weak El Nino of this winter. Art Douglas had pointed this out to me a couple of months ago and noted that NWS CPC seemed totally focused on the US and was ignoring this strong signal south of the border. Amazingly dry across most of the US so far for 2015.

Art sent these two recent forecasts from the CFSv2 that is run by NWS CPC out through very long ranges.The model is run, apparently once per day, out to as long as nine months - which seems like a bit of model overkill to me. Regardless, the precipitation forecasts (for what they are worth) for the months of July and August (above and below) indicate southeast Arizona in a near normal situation during July and a bit wet during August. This will be a long wait and see situation.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous2:00 PM

    If that's true, not a good swamp cooler summer here!

    Seeing the pattern with the context of Mexico and Central America really helps, we often forget that. Quite the correlation between the ongoing drought in Central America and that pattern into the humid parts of TX and points NE. Now I see where our decent spring moisture has been coming from...not far south the pattern is wetter.