Heavy clouds this morning - vis satellite image above and radar composite below are both from about 7:15 am MST. Showers have gotten further north and west than any of the models were forecasting at the time of yesterday's post.
Rainfall has fallen across the southern portion of the ALERT network with 15 sites reporting rain - most of these are in the southwestern sector of the network (above at 7:15 am). Several sites around Green Valley have measured about a quarter of an inch so far.
The morning sounding from TWC (below, skewT plot for 12 UTC) is also better than the forecasts yesterday - with more precipitable water and a fair amount of CAPE. So, I will hope that the showers edge north this morning as the 500 mb low moves from north end of GoC eastward along the border.
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