Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Heavy Clouds And Warm Temps This AM

There were heavy clouds over much of the metro area this morning, with virga and perhaps some sprinkles off toward the Rincons. View of the Catalinas above was at 6:00 am MST, while the visible satellite image below was from 7:00 am. Heavy clouds kept temperatures very warm during the night - low temperature at TUS this morning was only 73 F versus 60 F yesterday morning.

It looks like temperatures at middle-levels are about as cool as they'll get (-14 C at 500 mb) and that warm advection will be setting in above 700 mb during the day. The 06 UTC forecasts from the WRF-NAM at Atmo seem to reflect this, with afternoon convection shifted to our east and northeast. The composite radar forecast below is valid at 5:00 pm MST this afternoon. The WRF-NAM has been a bit conservative this Spring and there may be a very slight chance for showers around our nearby Sky Islands. 

After today it looks like serious summer for a few days.

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