Monday, June 06, 2016

Interesting Situation Developing for Early June

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC this morning are indicating a chance for showers next Thursday into Friday. The QPF plumes above are for the airport (TUS). While amounts are light, any rainfall during the first couple of weeks in June is unusual.

The plumes for the dewpoint at TUS are shown above and indicate considerable increases in low-level moisture beginning tomorrow and peaking on Friday, with ensemble average Td going a bit above 50 F. Most of the ensemble members also forecast increasing CAPE (below) but with a large range among the various members. Currently, the operational member (blue) is one of the wetter versions of the model.

The operational GFS forecasts from 06 UTC illustrate what is leading to this unusual forecast. The forecast above is for 500 mb valid at 12 UTC on Friday morning the 10th. The trough along the west coast is interacting with the west end of a strong anticyclone over the Southeast. The 850 mb forecast (below) valid at the same time indicates moisture intruding into Arizona from the southern GoC, with values reaching over an inch. The forecast for accumulated rainfall through next Saturday morning is shown at the bottom.

Given the calendar, this would be quite some event if it all came together as per current GFS forecasts.

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