The GFS ensemble 500 mb mean and spaghetti plot above is valid at 5:00 pm MST next Saturday, June 18th. Very little spaghetti on the plate and very strong anticyclone covering most of CONUS. The heights in the egg-shaped contour centered over New Mexico exceed 5940 m - will they reach 6000 m? Below, from the TUS NWS webpage, are charts showing record temperatures at the airport. Note in the right chart the records for June 4th and 6th last week.
It is interesting that all of the extreme records shown in the tables have occurred since 1988.
Meanwhile, this morning's outlook from NHC (above) indicates that there is medium probability that the first named tropical storm might develop in the east Pacific during the coming week. The 12 UTC blended PW analysis from CIRA at Colorado State University (below) shows high PW, subtropical air currently south of 20 degrees north, with dry air covering the Southwest. With the low humidity it was very pleasant early this morning here in north part of the City along the Rillito wash.
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