Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Moisture Later This Week As Per WRF-GFS

There was deep convection last evening along the highest terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico - IR image above from NCAR is at 03 UTC. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS analysis of PW below indicates that much of moisture feeding these storms was from the GoC. However, recycled moisture around 700 mb from the east was also supporting storm development over the mountains.

The WRF-GFS forecast for 6:00 am MST on Friday (above, on the 5.4 km grid) indicates the main push of low-level moisture for possible storms later in week will come northward up the GoC. However, the 700 mb RH forecast valid at same time (below) indicates widespread, vertical recycling of moisture. A very interesting situation evolving for  early to mid June., as shown by the WRF-GFS forecast of accumulated rainfall through 11:00 am on Friday.

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