Monday, September 12, 2016

Chance Of Thunderstorms Today

Note - am having PC problems this morning and will post what I can quickly.

In what I think is a first this morning, the NWS has used a forecast from Mike Leuthold's local version of the WRF-NAM in its weather story - above.

The morning sounding for TWC (below from SPC) is moderately unstable this mornin, and an increase in PW would make conditions even more unstable with substantial CAPE. However, winds are westerly through the troposphere and the strong vertical shear of this transition pattern will spread anvils ahead of storms. A situation unfavorable for storms here at house, unless they develop nearby. The potential exists for strong to severe storms in some locations today and also for hail.

I show here two forecasts of PW from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Above is valid at 11:00 pm last night and below is valid at 11:00 am this morning - model forecasts an increase of almost 10 mm at TWC, which leads to widespread storms in forecasts for eastern Pima County. Forecast of WRF-GFS composite radar echoes at bottom is valid at 5:00 pm MST this afternoon.

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