Thursday, September 08, 2016

Quick Overview Of Newton Rains

The Newton event is now more-or--less history, although the remnant 500 mb circulation remains just off to northeast of Tucson and PW remains high. The swath of heaviest rains (see analysis map now posted at the NWS website) evolved somewhat similar to the Odile event. Model forecasts tended to keep heavy rain core too far west and north versus observations.However, moderate rains were more widespread to the north and west of the heavy rain area than was the case for Odile. View of Catalinas at 7:00 AM MST this morning (above) shows a bit of blue peeking through.

Rainfall data above are from ALERT network and are for 3-days ending at 7:00 am this morning. Unfortunately, the time resolutions are a bit lacking in the new soft. Our Newton event lasted more than 24-hours, but next period available is three days. Note that several amounts exceeded 6 inches, as did the RAWS site in the Rincons. Amounts were generally over an inch, except for parts of the core metro area - here at house the total was 0.83". Lowest totals were along I-10 and appear a bit suspect wrt nearby amounts.

The highlight scheme for amounts in the new ALERT software could use some fine-tuning also - currently amounts over one inch are shown no differently than amounts over six inches.

Couple of bits of data from RAWS sites shown here. At a bit after 7:00 pm last evening the Carr site on east side of Huachucas had measured over 5 inches - I suspect their final total was over six inches.

Below are some observations I snipped for Mt. Hopkins, where winds were gusting from the east at well over 60 mph yesterday morning.

The event mostly provided beneficial rains for low elevations, where conditions had been very dry since mid-August. Was surprised this morning to see that, given the heavy mountain rains, that there had been no flow in the Rillito downstream from the Dodge gauge, which never reached a 100 cfs. Long duration of event allowed ground to really soak up the rainfall.

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