Sunday, September 25, 2016

Quick Look Next Week

Not much time this morning, so I've just taken a quick look at the 06 UTC WRF model forecasts from Atmo and the NHC morning outlook. The WRF forecasts (NAM version above and GFS version below) indicate a more significant precipitation event during the next few days than current public forecasts indicate. Shown here (on 5.4 km grid) are forecasts for precipitation through 11:00 am MST on Wednesday the 28th. Both models forecast a fairly substantial event for much of Arizona, northern Mexico, and parts of Texas.

After Wednesday the GFS version is very aggressive with a new tropical storm (see this morning's NHC 5 day outlook at bottom), bringing it across northern Baja and into play for southern Arizona by end of the week. So, a very interesting weather situation to watch as the month comes to a close.

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