Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Rest Of Week Mostly Dry
View at 3:00 pm MST yesterday from campus showed thunderstorms, some had hail reported, occurring again on north side of Catalinas. The plot of detected CG flashes through midnight last night (below from Atmo and Vaisala) indicates a bit more storm activity around the eastern edges of Pima County than I expected, and the WRF forecasts for yesterday afternoon were quite good.
Only 19 sites with rainfall across the ALERT network yesterday, with most of these in the Catalinas - no reports of rainfall of half an inch or more.
Little else to report as the advance of the western US 500 mb trough brings a general dry-out for the Southwest into the weekend. Forecast of PW below is from 06 UTC WRF-GFS model on the 5.4 km grid. Dark browns indicate PW values of less than 10 mm - current values across much of southern Arizona have fallen below 25 mm.
The NHC does expect another tropical disturbance toward the weekend to develop and move again toward the south end of Baja, which could perhaps affect southern Arizona sometime next week.
Posted by Bob Maddox at 5:50 AM