Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Thunderstorms In Area Yesterday Afternoon

After the early storms yesterday, things were somewhat suppressed in the afternoon, but storms did develop here and there. The photo above is from Mike Olbinski and is of a storm with rotation near Three Points about 3:25 pm MST. His video seems to show one or two gustnadoes and funnels aloft perhaps trying to hook up. The plot of CG flash density below is for 12-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning.

There were apparently some problems with the WRF forecast runs, and I've just taken a quick look at NWS model forecasts. The GEFS plumes from 00 UTC last evening (above) are erratic with shower forecasts for the airport at widely varying times and amounts, before flatlining for first week in October.. The new 12 UTC NAM forecast this morning is quite a bit more aggressive with storms and precipitation - especially on Friday, as the rest of the 500 mb trough off Baja comes by. The forecast below is for total rainfall through 12 UTC on Saturday morning, October 1st.

The NHC has just issued its first forecast advisory (below) for Tropical Storm Matthew, which is forecast to become a hurricane over the central Carribean. The long range model forecasts are very different when the GEFS ensembles are compared to the operational ECMWF. Matthew could become a serious concern next week for the Southeast, from Cuba to Cape Hatteras and points between.

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