The SPC skewT plot of TWC sounding data from 12 UTC looks very promising (above) - PW of 1.60", substantial CAPE, and a nicely veering, Plains-type wind profile. However, the 06 UTC WRF forecasts from Atmo do not indicate anything across southern Arizona this afternoon, except short-lived, small storms that are very isolated. The models forecast decreasing PW and CAPE diminishing due to warming in middle levels. So, the models forecast that all that low-level moisture out there will go for naught. The forecast soundings for early afternoon in both versions, however, do look a bit more favorable for storms than the forecasts indicate - can only watch and see what the mountains are able to boil up later.
Unfortunetly, Paine has also left behind a large pool of warm, middle-level air within the core of a rapidly weakening short wave at 500 mb (the remnant short wave is actually the melded result of Paine interacting with the pre-existing cyclone that had been present to its north - destructive interference in action. Shown here are 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts for 500 mb winds and temperature - above valid at 6:00 am this morning and below valid at 6:00 pm this evening. The forecasts indicate continuous warming at 500 mb over Arizona through the day, which acts to cap deep convection, especially at low elevations. So it goes - good riddance Paine.