Thursday, September 15, 2016

PW May Increase By Early Next Week

Perfectly clear skies to our north at 7:00 am MST this morning. The plot below shows CG flash density for all of central and west U.S. for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (from and Vaisala. There was a thunderstorm in southeast Arizona well north of the Catalinas yesterday afternoon. A tiny, orphan shower passed overhead here and produced a Trace of rain.

The 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS goes out to a week and I took a look at its radar forecast. First storms in Pima County forecast by next Monday afternoon (above valid at 3:00 pm on the 19th). The return of higher PW seems mostly to advect in from the east. although by that time there may be a tropical disturbance in play also. This morning's outlook from the NHC (below) indicates a high likelihood of a tropical system approaching Baja by next Tuesday. Cool and dry mornings today and next several days will be much appreciated.

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