Friday, September 16, 2016

Nice Weekend But With Temperatures Near 100

Pleasant early morning today with cool temperatures and a nice sunrise highlighting some cirrus. Down at very bottom is Finger Rock just catching some sunlight and apparently a large hawk winging along on a morning hunt.

As for next week, the NHC morning outlook (above) continues to forecast that development of a new disturbance is likely, and that it will head generally northwestward toward the west of Baja. 

A forecast of 850 mb winds and dewpoint temperatures valid at midnight on 20 September, from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo, is shown below. The model forecasts the tropical disturbance to be just about where the NHC outlook would indicate. What could be TS Paine has by the valid time of the forecast caused moisture to surge northward up the GoC and Colorado River Basin into parts of Nevada, California, and Arizona. Of course this remains five days away and so the details are very much uncertain. The forecast that is second below is from same forecast run and valid at same time as the 850 mb forecast, but is for total accumulated precipitation. At this long range the model forecasts Tucson to be sitting in the middle of a precipitation donut hole - so it will be interesting to evaluate this forecast next Wednesday morning.

1 comment:

  1. Our monsoon season has been a complete bust, so hopefully the rain from Paine will fall onto the (coastal) plain.