Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Paine Weakening Rapidly

Former Hurricane Paine has weakened very rapidly this morning and is hard to locate in the IR satellite image above. The area of high cloudiness produced by Paine is extensive, extending from northern Baja across Arizona much of Utah and Colorado. The Yuma composite radar chart from 07:30 am MST this morning (below) shows light showers remain mostly far to our west over southern California and the Colorado River Basin. Yesterday's 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast appears to have been considerably more accurate than was the NAM version. The plot of CG flash density (second below, from weather.graphics and Vaisala) shows that, after the early morning storms yesterday near San Diego, there has been little thunderstorm activity, except out in the Pacific and far south in Sonora.

The 06 UTC WRF forecasts from last night are now quite similar - shown here are forecasts of accumulated rainfall through 06:00 am on the 22nd (Thursday morning). Above is the WRF-GFS forecast and below is that from the WRF-NAM. Main difference is whether showers to the east of the main precipitation area impact mostly Pima or Cochise County. Regardless, main impact from Paine will be far to our west and north.

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