Saturday, August 29, 2009

Will Jimena Come Our Way?


Yesterday was again very hot and dry. The cool middle-level temperatures combined with the 100F plus temperatures to produce some isolated, very high-base Cbs and at most a sprinkle or two. This morning precipitable water remains very limited with amounts from 0.60" to around 1.00" with a slow creep upward at several locations. A brief push of GoC air inland has produced higher dewpoints at Yuma. A push of easterly winds associated with a backdoor front from New Mexico has pushed past Tucson and Phoenix into south central Arizona but dewpoints are low either side of this feature. With the cool temperatures aloft, isolated high-base Cbs will likely be the high point of today's weather.
It still appears that a serious return push of the subtropical moisture will begin tomorrow and increase on Monday (note that the dry air has pushed far south with Hermosilla only showing an inch of PW this morning). The northward push will result from both the eastward shift of the 500 mb high, and the movement northwestward of the current disturbance over the south end of the GoC.
Yesterday I noted to some that the depression, or TS, spinning off the southwest coast of Mexico was far better organized than Danny was - of course all the attention was to the east on Danny boy. This feature was identified as a depression at 0300Z today by NHC and is currently a hurricane by name of Jimena (see IR image above). Jimena is forecast to be a major hurricane and to move toward the southwest of lower Baja. Thus, September may get off to an interesting start with two features from the south affecting Arizona during the coming week.

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