Except for a cluster near Safford bit of a dud yesterday. What moisture increase there was in the BL was washed-out through-out the day, as evident by wide-spread surface dew points in the 30s and 40s. Still looks like June to me.Models (especially the aggressive NAM) are trying to bring some moisture in here the next few days, but they have generally been on the "wet" side this whole season. Yes, there is a weak-looking low near the southern Baja tip that is poised to move northward in the flow, but if I had a nickle for every meso-low floating around that moved into AZ and didn't produce precip I'd have a ton of nickles. With the stronger w/sw flow one would think this feature might get sheared-out anyways.Large-scale flow pattern looks pretty terrible for the next 1-2 weeks for getting any big activity in the region, especially for the Phoenix area. If it stays this dry into mid-August, this has the potential to be one of our worst convective seasons on record (heck, already has that potential as of now).
Paul I., Phoenix
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