We basically continue with our failed monsoon of 2009. The large-scale pattern is again very Fall-like. The polar jet with the current western trough extends south almost to the northern Arizona border - certainly not good for kicking up our summer rain amounts.
No precipitation in the Pima County ALERT network yesterday. So it goes this summer.
The models are a mixed bag for the coming week. The ECMWF tries to bring a weak 500 mb cutoff in from the northwest and then let it interact with the subtropical flow. The NAM in the shorter term forecasts several inverted troughs across Mexico but keeps the moisture mostly in Mexico.
The most interesting weather during the coming week or so will be the new flurry of activity in the Atlantic tropics. Ana is forecast to move quikly toward the U.S., but to remain a Tropical Storm. Tropical Depression Three is forecast to become a hurricane and this is the wave that the long term models have been bringing into Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.
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