Monday, August 03, 2009

Broader View on the Monsoon


Here is a bar graph of the all-Mexican rainfall. The blue bar is the observed rainfall, the yellow the climo and the red bar the forecast. It looks like it will turn out to be the driest or second driest July on record .... the SMN still needs to add the 8AM August 1st totals to the graph for the month (Mexico rainfall in the morning of the 1st on the previous month's total).
The Mexican monsoon did have a good start........and fizzled earlier than expected under the El Nino which strengthened in May and June. The August forecast calls for 92% normal for Mexico but 70% of normal in the area from Durango to Tamaulipas and the southwest coast from Colima to Oaxaca. This will be a classic dry El Nino summer for Mexico if August remains dry as forecast.
Art Douglas

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